Margarinet som orsakar skilsmässa.

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Det här är en av de roligaste tweets jag någonsin läst, och då har jag ändå hängt på twitter längre än jag haft filter mellan hjärna och mun. DrEmmaFrans slår huvudet på spiken på mindre än 140 tecken. Korrelation och kausalitet är inte samma sak.

I tider av vansinniga missförstånd kring statistik pga oroligt politiskt klimat och foliehattar som trollar till det i kommentarsfält tänker jag att det kanske är på sin plats att tala om statistik och korrelationer. Och kausalitet. I länken kan man bl.a. se att margarinkonsumtionen tydligt korrelerar med skilsmässostatistiken i Maine genom åren. Likaså kan man se att antalet filmer Nicholas Cage spelar i korrelerar med antalet drunkningsolyckor orsakade av fall i bassäng.

Många människor gör misstaget att missta korrelation för kausalitet. Vi kan alltså inte minska antalet drunkningsolyckor genom att inte längre låta Nicholas Cage göra filmer eller för den delen rädda äktenskap genom att förbjuda margarin. Det ena har egentligen inte med det andra att göra. Det är skrämmande lätt att förvränga statistik och det är problematiskt att det i vår tid går att inte bara förvränga men också fabulera statistik till allmänheten med argument som att medier försöker mörka sanningen.

Då och då läggs faktisk, verklig statistik fram – men då den är mindre sensationell är det färre som vill lyssna eller för den delen sprida. Och även då är det svårt att säga vad som är korrelation och vad som är kausalitet. Vi kan t.ex. inte anta att män som heter Niklas är mer benägna att bli serievåldtäktsmän.  Detta trots att två av de värsta sexualbrottslingar vi haft i modern tid i Sverige hetat Niklas. Först Hagamannen och sedan Örebromannen. Namnet Niklas är trots dessa olyckliga sammanträffanden inte mer riskfaktor för att bli serievåldtäktsman än vad margarin bidrar till skilsmässostatistiken i Maine.

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2 Comments

  1. En av mina favorittweets, från @SilverVVulpes, är:
    I’m just sayin’, everyone that confuses correlation with causation eventually ends up dead.

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